Immediate Trade

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Allen Stanford

I didn’t know the story of Allen Stanford before seeing this video. He created a Ponzi scheme worth over $5 billion and ended up with a 110year prison sentence. Despite his public image as a trustworthy banker, Stanford’s life was built on lies, starting with his humble beginnings in Texas. He went on to live a […]

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39% After Fees…

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Langone on Life

Ken Langone, the founder of Home Depot and a successful investor, is celebrated for his exceptional leadership. Langone helped build Home Depot over 40 years ago and is now the largest shareholder in companies like Eli Lily. He became a shareholder in Eli Lily in 1977 when they bought his small medical device company, IVAC […]

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Thiel

Peter Thiel, a renowned Silicon Valley investor known for co-founding PayPal and Facebook, and backing companies like SpaceX and Stripe. Thiel emphasizes the importance of Founders and their unique visions, contrasting the 1990s Silicon Valley trend of replacing Founders with professional CEOs. He discusses his book “Zero to One,” which highlights the significance of creating something new […]

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NVIDIA Millionaires

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Who’s Ready to Trade All Night?

The NYSE is conducting a survey to gauge demand for overnight trading and is considering the necessary infrastructure changes. Robin Hood, Interactive Brokers, and other platforms already offer after-hours trading, with significant growth in overnight transactions. However, challenges such as central clearing and settlement, market manipulation, and resistance from market participants remain. The opening bell ceremony […]

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Supercomputer Wars: Tesla vs. Nvidia

Tesla’s supercomputer project, Dojo, is a powerful and bespoke hardware platform designed by Tesla’s AI division for training computer vision and full self-driving networks. Dojo uses a system on a chip called the Dojo chip, which integrates 25 chips to create one unified system. Tesla is also using wafer scale processing to create large, single-chip supercomputers, […]

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Up, we win. Down, you lose…

Lehman Brothers, a prosperous investment bank founded in 1850, was at the height of its success in 2006 with revenues totaling $19 billion and over 25,000 employees. However, the bank’s aggressive expansion and risky lending practices, particularly in the housing market, led to the financial crisis of 2008.  When Bear Stearns became the first victim […]

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Trading Cities…

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Never Say Never

Cliff Asness, founder of AQR Capital Management, discusses his views on market efficiency. Asness recalls his experience in Eugene Fama’s efficient market theory class, where he learned that markets are not perfectly efficient, causing a gasp among students. He explains that while markets are more efficient than he believes, perfect efficiency is an unrealistic concept. […]

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Market Concentration

(from 2 years ago) (from this week) While this topic makes for great clickbait it’s just another variation of the “this time is different” argument. Concentration is not new or different. Vilfredo Pareto noted this a long time ago. https://www.masterclass.com/articles/pareto-principle-explained Right or wrong….If an index is “too concentrated” how about we just keep cash on […]

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With Flying Colors…

The spectacular results of the Federal Reserve’s stress tests on the eight largest banks. Every single one of the top 31 banks passed the tests despite holding more consumer credit card loans and corporate debt, with elevated delinquency rates and retail giants reporting that consumers are tapped out. The Fed also performed an exploratory analysis […]

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Artificial Intelligence Bubble

An opinion from a sleazy but credible market participant. Shkreli draws parallels between the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s and the current hype surrounding artificial intelligence (AI). He believes that the potential valuations of AI companies may lead to a bubble, but the long-term value may come from companies that emerge after the bubble bursts. Shkreli […]

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How Google Makes Money

Aravind Srinivas and Lex Fridman, they explain that Google earns revenue primarily through search advertising on Google AdWords. Google’s search engine, with its high daily traffic, serves as the largest real estate on the internet for advertisers to bid for keywords related to their businesses. When users click on these ads, Google charges the advertisers, with […]

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BTC as Money?

Michael Saylor makes the case that Bitcoin should not be considered a currency due to its lack of legal tender status. He explains that using Bitcoin as a currency would result in added costs and complex accounting transactions due to its taxable status. Saylor also highlights that currencies are regulated by nation-states, and the advantages […]

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Debt or Defense….

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The Favorite Location of the .01%

“Why Wyoming is so Weirdly Wealthy,” Wendover Productions explores the paradox of Wyoming’s unattractive living conditions and limited resources yet having a high concentration of billionaires, particularly in Teton County. The area, which has transformed from a remote ranching town into a vacation destination, attracts wealthy individuals due to scenic landscapes and tax benefits. However, […]

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Competition for Stocks

 BlackRock and Citadel Securities, two financial heavyweights, have begun the process to create a new stock exchange in Texas. The Texas Stock Exchange directly challenges the dominance of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NASDAQ. The new exchange, located in Dallas, aims to have fewer restrictions on listed companies and offer a cheaper and easier […]

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Fed Cuts?

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Class of 2024

This is up there with Steve Jobs’s Stanford speech….Bravo Roger and Dartmouth. Well worth anyone’s 25 minutes.

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Livermore the Legend

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Whale Family Office

The rise and fall of Bill Hwang, the man behind Archegos Capital Management, Hwang, initially an immigrant from South Korea, built a 20B fortune through his hedge fund and family office, only to lose it all when a stock sale triggered a margin call and exposed his excessive borrowing.

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Dark Pools vs Lit Trading

Dark pools, around since the 90s, are legal and regulated, but trades are kept hidden until after execution. They have grown in popularity, capturing 40% of US market share in 2021, and are used by hedge funds, pension funds, mutual funds, and brokers. Dark pools offer anonymity and potential additional liquidity, but lack of transparency […]

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Trade War 2?

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How does the consumer feel?

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Turning 1M into 1B

“Turning $1M Into $1B+: A Masterclass From The Indian Warren Buffet”. Mohnish shares various insights from his experiences and encounters with Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger. One of these experiences involved winning a lunch with Buffet but having a friend who couldn’t pay, leading to a meeting with Munger instead. The speaker developed a deep […]

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Drone War(s)?

Palmer Luckey, the founder of Oculus and Anduril Industries, expresses his desire to bring Silicon Valley innovation to the Pentagon and modernize the US defense industry. He criticizes the outdated technology in the military and aims to take a slice of the Pentagon’s $850 billion budget with his new defense company. Luckey, who grew up in […]

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Teacher, Codebreaker, and Quant King

 Jim Simons, the founder of Renaissance Technologies, is remembered for his pioneering work in quantitative investing, earning him the nickname “Quant King”. He is also recognized for his philanthropic efforts, particularly in education and mathematics, having founded a large foundation and supported other organizations, including a program to teach mathematics in grade schools and autism […]

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Private Equity Domination

“How Private Equity Consumed America,” describes how private equity firms’ financial incentives, such as leveraged buyouts and performance fees, can lead to brutal business practices. The video uses Apollo Global’s acquisition of Yahoo as as an example and explains the ownership structure of J.W. Childs Associates.

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Buffett Locking in Gains

Buffett clarified that this does not reflect a change in view towards Apple’s business or investment attractiveness. Berkshire considers various factors, including tax implications and manager responsibility, when deciding on stock investments. Buffett emphasized that they do not attempt to predict markets or pick stocks based on trends but view them as businesses to serve […]

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City Debt Bubble?

https://www.truthinaccounting.org/news/detail/financial-state-of-the-cities-2024

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Chief of Payment for Order Flow

Ken Griffin, the CEO of Citadel, discusses his history, market research, and the current state of the US economy with Norges Bank Investment Management. He expresses concern over the economy being near full employment with inflation around 3%, while the government continues to engage in massive spending. Griffin argues that this spending binge leaves the […]

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America’s Economy

“Why JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Is Skeptical of an Economic Soft Landing | WSJ” YouTube video interview, Dimon expresses his concerns about the economic outlook, citing potential inflation, higher interest rates, and geopolitical tensions as significant threats. He is cautious about a soft landing and shares his thoughts on the infrastructure bill and Jerome Powell’s […]

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Nancy’s Net Worth Live Updates!

QuiverQuant created a dashboard that updates net worth in real time. Click the link below to find out if your reps are making or losing money today. https://www.quiverquant.com/congress-live-net-worth/

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Trump Jurors

Disappointed to see immediate.trade and immediate.guru aren’t listed (yet) https://archive.ph/sPbK6#selection-2142.0-2148.0

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Howard Marks on Clarity

Howard Marks is praised for his ability to make complex ideas simple and clear in his writing. Marks, who believes in the role of luck in his success as an investor, shares his approach to sharing his investing secrets through clear memos. He emphasizes the importance of clarity and simplicity in communication, using common language, connection with […]

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“Fool Me Once…”

Interesting how opinions change when their candidate isn’t in office. Former White House adviser Jason Furman on inflation and interest rate hikes.

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JPMORGAN Outlook Q2

Via their Q2 update: https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets

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Siegel is a Bull

Professor Jeremy Siegel expresses optimism about the economy’s strength, despite high interest rates. The Atlanta Fed’s revised GDP estimate for the first quarter surpassing 2% is an indicator of a healthier economy. While some sectors, such as tech, may be overvalued, the majority of the market is reasonably priced at around 17 times forward earnings. […]

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Container Crash

Mike Brady from Ocean Liner Designs discusses the collision between a ship, MV Dali, and the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland. The bridge, which is a steel truss bridge spanning over a kilometer, has a narrow entrance leading to the port, making safe navigation a critical issue. The MV Dali, a large cargo ship, altered […]

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Lessons From the Best

Jack Schwager, author of “Market Wizards,” discusses his advice for aspiring traders in a series of YouTube interviews. He emphasizes the importance of risk management, setting stop losses, and being objective when making decisions to exit a trade. He also discusses Bruce Kovner, Michael Marcus, compares fundamental and technical trading, and indexes like the Magnificent […]

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How Deep is the “Deep State”

The origins of the CIA can be traced back to the Office of Strategic Services (OSS) during World War II, which embraced unconventional tactics to maintain national security. After the war, concerns over resource allocation and civil liberties led to the dismantling of spy agencies. However, with the growing tensions between the United States and […]

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France vs Russia (in Africa)

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Military Tech

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REDDIT IPO: They like the stock.

Reddit moderator Courtney Saren, with over a decade of experience on the platform and an attorney by day, shares her reasons for not participating in Reddit’s Initial Public Offering (IPO) despite her long-term commitment. Saren values the community and friendships she’s built on Reddit but has had a strained relationship with the admins. Although there have […]

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Ban ESG?

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/biden-vetoes-resolution-block-labor-dept-rule-esg-investing-2023-03-20/ This article discusses President Biden using his first veto to preserve a recent Labor Department rule regarding environmental, social, and governance (ESG) funds in 401(k) retirement plans. The Biden rule rolled back a Trump-era rule that effectively barred employers from considering ESG funds for 401(k)s. The Biden rule clarifies that employers can consider workers’ […]

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Everyday Inflation

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Cash for Votes

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Trump on Offense

Trump defends his proposal for a 10% tariff on imports from countries like China, India, and others. He argues that it would bring international trade back to the United States and save industries, such as steel, that have been negatively impacted by foreign competition. Trump believes that the tariffs would also give the US political […]

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Bianco on Risk

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Carvana Revived

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16B Dollar Bet

Michael Dell’s decision to take Dell private despite significant challenges is discussed. Facing a declining consumer PC business and a plummeting stock price, Dell shifted focus to software and services, investing $10 billion and growing it to $21 billion within five years. However, the market did not share the same optimism, leading to a guttered […]

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Trillion Dollar Assumptions

“The Trillion Dollar Equation,” video from Veritasium explores the model that spawned multi-trillion dollar industries. More specifically how Bachelier applied Fourier, how Ed Thorp made money applying the model, and finally how Black, Scholes and Merton published the model. Some immediate.trade content and expected ranges come from Black Scholes, but the rest of the content […]

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Charlie Munger

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They Burn Cash, Not Oil

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Israel Hamas

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BRK Income Sources

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NVDA vs Countries

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Russia’s Plans

General Richard Shirreff, a retired British military commander and former second-in-command at NATO, discusses his early warnings about Russian expansion and the potential threat it poses to European nations. He published a book in 2016 titled “War with Russia,” which depicted Russia invading the Baltics, and recounts the skepticism he faced when the book was […]

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Manufacturing Slowdown?

A notably conservative panel Kevin O’Leary, Kevin Hassett, and John Carney discuss inflation, bank failures and credit card delinquencies. They attribute seasonal issues and the possibility of trend reversal to these issues, but note ongoing struggles like a capex slowdown and small business borrowing challenges. They also discuss rising credit card and automobile loan delinquencies […]

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Big Oops!

Lyft CEO Logan Green acknowledged a clerical error in a press release that led to a major surge in the company’s stock price, with shares increasing as much as 67 percent in after-hours trading. Green emphasized the financially strong quarter Lyft had experienced but expressed regret for the unacceptable error. He assured listeners that the CFO’s […]

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7 Trillion Dollars?

*Like we noted on our post from June 23, Sam is turning into a Bond villain.* Who would be the better Bond villain Elon or Sam?

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Magnificent PEG Prices

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Forever Wars?

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Apple AR Headset

In the “Apple Vision Pro Review” YouTube video, Marques Brownlee expresses his excitement about the new Apple VR headset, despite its limitations, due to its novelty and potential future implications as a first-generation product from Apple with the “Pro” label. He praises the impressive micro OLED display, high refresh rate, and accurate calibration, but acknowledges the […]

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Short & Co.

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Putin’s Power Company

“Russia’s energy empire: Putin and the rise of Gazprom,” the focus is on Russia’s use of energy as a political weapon, particularly in its relationships with Europe and Germany. The documentary explores how Russia, under Putin’s leadership, leveraged its vast natural gas reserves and control over Gazprom to gain influence and power on the global stage. […]

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Big Gayne(rs)

Tom Gayner shares insights from his experiences with business mentor Charlie Munger and the lessons he learned, including working towards a purposeful vision and treating customers well to build long-term relationships. He discusses the importance of insuring that business ideas fit into one of two categories, understanding the role of wild financiers in technological progress, […]

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Zeihan advises Morgan

Zeihan predicts China will be the first major country to experience “National Oblivion” due to a demographic crisis. The expert also highlights the rise of geopolitical tensions, specifically in the Middle East, which could disrupt the world’s largest source of internationally traded crude oil. Countries like Canada, Colombia, and Vietnam are potential labor absorbers due […]

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2024 Predictions

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Real Estate Trainwreck?

 Chris Whalen’s YouTube video titled “Commercial Real Estate ‘Trainwreck’ Will Hit Banking System In 2024,” the banking expert discusses the challenges facing the banking industry due to commercial real estate loans. Whalen predicts that losses from commercial real estate workouts could impact bank earnings significantly. He compares the current situation to the oil patch crisis in […]

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S&P vs The World

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Fraud’s R Us

Scammers and “investments” using customer money for personal expenses and risky trades. Another case was Safe Moon, a crypto project that locked investor funds into a liquidity pool and netted its creators over $200 million for personal expenses while pretending to guarantee safe returns. The business world was also Rocked by deception, with Charlie Javis, […]

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The Greatest Active Manager Ever

“How a Mathematician Became the Greatest Trader of All Time,” Jim Simons, the founder of Renaissance Technologies and its successful Medallion hedge fund, is profiled. Simons, a mathematician and code-breaker, took a scientific approach to investing, using vast data sets, computer models, and algorithms. His strategies, which challenged traditional intuition-based investing, led to average annual […]

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Big Tech Revenue Breakdown

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2023 Futures Results

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Bank Failure: Worst since 2008

“The worst year for banks since 2008 | FT Film” discusses the tumultuous year experienced by the global banking sector in 2023, which was deemed the worst year for banks since the 2008 financial crisis. The video explores various events such as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) due to the decline in funding for tech […]

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Yemen

The ongoing conflict in Yemen began during the Arab Spring in 2011 when Yemenis rose up against President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Saudi Arabia, being influential in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), negotiated Saleh’s ouster and installed a new government led by Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, but discontent grew due to Hadi’s failure to address issues. Houthi […]

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Red Sea War

The Red Sea is a vital shipping lane, with a significant amount of oil and goods passing through it. The Houthi rebels have been launching attacks using anti-ship missiles and drones, causing concern for global trade. The US Navy has deployed its destroyers to intercept these attacks. The former admiral thinks effective intelligence gathering will […]

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Bezos: Reaching New Horizons

Jeff Bezos’s conversation with Lex Fridman focuses on his background, vision for space exploration, and commentary on effective teamwork and mangement. Bezos talks about Blue Ring, a payload management service that provides thermal management, electric power, compute, communications, and other services for payloads in Earth and lunar vicinity. The New Glenn is a heavy lift launch […]

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Elite Misunderstandings

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A Tribute to Munger

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Rising vs Falling Prices. Existing vs New Construction

Worth the 11 Minutes!

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Charlie Munger: The Last Interview

Charlie Munger, co-CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, reflects on his life and accomplishments in this interview. He discusses his varied interests and expertise, which have helped him succeed as a businessman and investor. Munger attributes his success to his low expectations, humility, and sense of humor, as well as surrounding himself with valuable relationships. He also talks […]

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Twitter’s Problems

Patrick Boyle discusses Elon Musk’s changes to Twitter since taking ownership, including financial losses, replacing all plumbing fixtures, replacing the branding, laying off staff, independent content moderation, and paid verification. It also mentions the controversy surrounding Musk’s tweets and interviews, company unprofitability except for 2018 and 2019, and the financial impact of his acquisition on advertisers. The […]

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Housing Affordability

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OpenAI Revolt Explained

“The Entire OpenAI Chaos Explained”, discusses the recent firing and subsequent reappointment of Sam Altman as the CEO of Open AI. Altman’s firing resulted in an internal revolt from employees and revealed a major scandal in the tech and AI industry. The video explores various theories as to why Altman was terminated, including disputes with the board […]

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Which Airlines Carried the Most Passengers

Of the 3 billion passengers who took a flight last year, more than half flew on one of the big players in the industry.  At the top of the list, American Airlines flew nearly 200 million passengers in 2022. The airline’s most popular route was between Dallas Fort-Worth (DFW) and Los Angeles (LAX), operating more than 30 […]

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OpenAI Mutiny

Microsoft seems to have bankrupted OpenAI in less than two days. If that is the case, their 13B investment will be written down however it seems investors have increased MSFT market cap by 70B today.

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America’s Largest Private Companies

https://www.statista.com/chart/23592/largest-private-companies-us/

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Gundlach’s 2024 Predictions

Jeffrey Gundlach discusses the most surprising things he observed in 2023. He was surprised by the continuation of the market’s momentum in consumer spending despite the high interest rates on credit cards. He also commented on the surprising drop in the commodity price complex, including the issue with the Mid-East oil and the slowing global […]

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CPI and PPI Market Reactions

Some excellent analysis by Russell Rhoads https://russellrhoads.substack.com/p/cpi-ppi-plus-big-box-retail-earnings

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Real GDP Growth

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-fastest-growing-economies-in-2024/

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Ben Mallah

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Hot Air

Guy who is down big wants the public (who is broke) to buy more stock. Check out his portfolio at https://whalewisdom.com/filer/altimeter-capital-management-llc

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$157B Cash Pile

Despite holding back during the pandemic, Berkshire Hathaway has started returning to the market with key transactions, such as Occidental Petroleum and Alleghany insurance. However, the cash pile has been showing up in short-term or short-dated securities, and the company has also continued to put more money into buybacks, resulting in a large share repurchase […]

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We(Fail)

This video describes WeWork, an office space rental company masquerading as a tech company creating a “physical social network.” Despite raising $22 billion in venture capital, WeWork never turned a profit and is considered the worst venture capital deal in history. The video discusses the significant decline of WeWork’s stock since going public, as well […]

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SBF

Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX’s escapades and trial results.

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Board of Changemakers: FII

The main themes outlined in the video include the challenges and opportunities posed by the shift towards renewable energy, technological trends impacting productivity and economic growth, the need for hard-nosed leadership in navigating real-world issues, and the potential challenges facing various industries, such as banking and finance, and commercial real estate. The video also touches […]

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Outlook for the Economy

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Fireside Chat with Legends

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Rates Will Come Down

Starwood Capital Group CEO Barry Sternlicht discusses his beliefs about the current state of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s handling of the global shutdown caused by the pandemic. He notes that most asset classes, except for US office space, have seen “stable fundamentals.” He attributes the slowed performance of office spaces to a […]

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Total War: Taiwan, USA, and China

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86x Earnings

OpenAI is in talks to sell existing employees` shares at an $86 billion valuation, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The artificial intelligence startup behind ChatGPT is negotiating the transaction, known as a tender offer, with potential investors, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information. The company is […]

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China’s Debt Problem

The debt problem is so severe that it is significantly greater than the 23 trillion total debt held by the country’s national government, and there are concerns that the debt burden could reach 360% of China’s GDP. The debt problem is compounded by deflation, which is causing goods and services to become cheaper in China, […]

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The Main Cost Behind Electric Vehicles

https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/cost-of-electric-vehicle-batteries/

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Investors stopped buying…

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Bank of America Losses

131.6 Billion. Ouch

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NVDIAS Chips for China are Illegal

The US government has recently placed restrictions on the sale of Nvidia chips made for the Chinese market, in an effort to prevent China from obtaining highly advanced semiconductor technology that could be used for military purposes. This move has affected both the 880 800 and top-tier chips, with the primary difference being the 880 […]

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GAZA MAP EXPLAINER

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Floating Fortress

The USS Gerald R. Ford is hailed as the most expensive and largest carrier ever built, with a price tag of at least $13 billion. It has the ability to generate enough energy to support high-power lasers and can accommodate more stealth fighters than Russia’s armed forces combined. With a displacement of around 100,000 long […]

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Israeli-Palestine Conflict

Israeli-Palestine Conflict Explained provides a comprehensive overview of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, starting from the creation of the state of Israel in 1948 to the present day. It covers the historical background, the wars and conflicts between Israel and Palestine, the internal political dynamics within Palestine, the role of tunnels, the rise of Benjamin Netanyahu, the […]

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Hot Developer in Hot Water

StoryBuilt is up for sale with an estimated value of $2 billion, including projects in some of the highest-growth markets in the United States. A&G Real Estate Partners and Onyx Asset Advisors said they are looking to sell 28 developments in various stages of planning or completion in Austin, Texas; Dallas; Denver; and Seattle by […]

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IDF vs. Hamas

Israel Defense Force was surprised and Hamas was able to reach several major towns with populations of around 30,000 people. The live conflict map shows that Israel retaliated with artillery and air strikes, including the use of attack helicopters and fighter jets. However, Hamas was reportedly able to strike deep enough to force Israel to […]

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Cover Image for WAR

WAR

Peter Zeihan highlights ongoing negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel regarding normalization, with the younger generation of Saudi leaders showing less concern for the Palestinian cause. The outcome of these negotiations could have significant geopolitical implications, particularly if Saudi Arabia aligns with Israel.  https://www.wsj.com/video/watch-israels-iron-dome-intercepts-wave-of-rockets-from-gaza/74ECAA16-8BE3-4285-B472-E31B9399972A.html

Greg P
Greg P
Cover Image for 7 to 108 Billion

7 to 108 Billion

Howard Marks discusses the upcoming sea change in financial markets and the potential implications for investors. He highlights the shift from declining or ultra-low interest rates to a higher interest rate environment, stating that credit instruments may provide equity-like returns and become more attractive. Marks reflects on his career at Oaktree and the growth of […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Prices Are Still Too High

Prices Are Still Too High

According to WSJ, many Americans continue to fixate on inflation, despite the fact that prices are rising more slowly. This discontent with inflation is weighing on President Biden’s approval ratings and his re-election hopes. Although inflation has fallen, it remains a significant concern for consumers. They are particularly sensitive to rising prices because they remember […]

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Greg P
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Evergrande Disaster

China’s property collapse, particularly with Evergrande, can be attributed to the country’s one-child policy, declining birth rate, and faulty population data. Evergrande’s growth strategy of borrowing money for land acquisition and selling homes before they were built resulted in massive debt for the company. Evergrande has over $320 billion in debt, making it the most […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Commodities are Reinflating!

Commodities are Reinflating!

Crops, copper, and crude oil are the topics of discussion along with the strong bond market and the impact of large notes and rates for the producers. In the livestock markets, live cattle, feeders, and lean hogs are trading higher on the day, potentially boosted by the rains slowing down the flow of grain. Scott […]

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Greg P
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Average Car Payments Are Soaring

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Greg P
Cover Image for Russia Celebrates High Oil Prices

Russia Celebrates High Oil Prices

https://ground.news/article/oil-prices-have-risen-thats-making-gas-more-expensive-for-us-drivers-and-helping-russias-war_94c1fa

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Greg P
Cover Image for Wall Street Week 9.22.23

Wall Street Week 9.22.23

If rates remain high, it can lead to a slower liquidation for those who are overleveraged, but stocks and the economy could still fare well in such a scenario. Government spending and borrowing could also impact the rate structure, potentially crowding out borrowers and making it difficult for rates to come down significantly. Finally, the […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Peace, Love, And Understanding…not

Peace, Love, And Understanding…not

Jeffrey Gundlach discusses the theme of peace, love, and understanding, relating it to the current social atmosphere. He mentions the lyrics of a song by Nick Lowe, covered by Elvis Costello, that he feels captures the mood of society today. Gundlach discusses the potential for a recession based on the inverted yield curve. He explains […]

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Greg P
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Dalio

Ray Dalio, in his talk at the All-In Summit, focuses on the rise and fall of nations and the changing world order. He highlights the importance of studying history to understand the patterns and drivers of societal shifts. Dalio identifies three significant factors that are shaping the current world order: debt and money creation, internal […]

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Greg P
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How to Commit Fraud

The video explains how Olympus executives engaged in fraudulent practices such as inflating the company’s books, buying companies at inflated prices, and using off-balance sheet entities to hide losses. Michael Woodford, a British businessman working at Olympus, noticed the irregularities and raised suspicions, eventually becoming CEO and uncovering the fraud. However, he was abruptly fired […]

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“Well Publicized Trouble”

Kimball Brooker Jr. of First Eagle explains how uncertainty around Chinese economic growth has impacted global equity markets and why the Global Value team is maintaining a cautious outlook as the yield curve remains inverted. https://www.firsteagle.com/insights/september-views-first-eagle-global-value-team-0 https://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=FE

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Cover Image for The TV show “Billions” was based on this guy…

The TV show “Billions” was based on this guy…

The documentary explores the rise and fall of Steve Cohen’s hedge fund, SAC Capital, detailing how Cohen became a legend on Wall Street, but was eventually embroiled in a multi-year federal investigation into insider trading. It covers the importance of relationships in the hedge fund industry, with traders cultivating contacts to obtain market information and […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Commodities are even more important than you think…

Commodities are even more important than you think…

The YouTube documentary “Behind closed doors: commodity traders, how it works | FULL DOCUMENTARY” explores the secretive and complex world of commodity trading. It reveals how speculators manipulate markets to drive up prices, the risks and rewards of commodity trading, the relationship between traders and banks, the role of paper trading in futures markets, the […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for A Welcomed Change to iPhone…

A Welcomed Change to iPhone…

Popular tech reviewer Marques Brownlee’s initial impressions of the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro, highlighting that most of the new features are either already seen in other phones or are limited to the iPhone ecosystem. The notable change is the switch from Lightning to USB-C ports, which allows for easier charging compatibility. However, this […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Tom Lee Says Buy in a Risk Off Environment

Tom Lee Says Buy in a Risk Off Environment

Tom Lee shares some insights on the potential impact of the Federal Reserve’s decision to stop raising rates. While some believe this could lead to further stock market decline, Lee suggests it may trigger a risk rally and actually cause a stock market rally. He emphasizes that the Fed’s decision does not necessarily mean they […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for TSLA and NVDA are Overrated

TSLA and NVDA are Overrated

Famous money manager Jim Chanos says Nvidia is the “it girl” of the AI bull market, but states that their firm is short on the stock, deeming it overvalued. Also, Tesla’s constantly changing narrative, including its focus on batteries, robo-taxis, and AI. He expresses bemusement at Tesla’s admission that they had been pursuing the wrong […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Elon’s All-in

Elon’s All-in

He talks about the progress of the Starship and the challenges of building a rocket twice the size of Falcon 9. He addresses the controversy around Starlink and Ukraine, explaining the reasons behind not turning on Starlink in Crimea. Musk also shares his perspective on the Biden administration and social media platforms, emphasizing the need […]

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Greg P
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Elon’s Bio

Ron Baron talks about his unwavering trust in Elon Musk and his investments in Tesla and SpaceX. Although he initially had concerns about Musk’s actions, Baron believes that it is Musk’s unconventional nature that has led to his success in the electric cars and space exploration industries. Baron describes Musk as a hard-working, engaging individual […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Made in India

Made in India

Apple is set to release the iPhone 15, potentially manufactured in India, signaling a strategic move to diversify production away from China. This decision aims to reassure investors about the resilience of Apple’s supply chain. It also reflects confidence in India’s ability to produce high-quality phones and successfully market them. The pricing strategy for the […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Grantham says “only invest  outside the US”

Grantham says “only invest outside the US”

Jeremy Grantham shares his insights on market bubbles, his investment strategy, and his concerns about the climate crisis in this interview. He emphasizes the role of human nature in creating bubbles, with people driven by the fear of missing out on wealth. Grantham also highlights the importance of recognizing human nature in market behavior and […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for A Serious Message From Buffett

A Serious Message From Buffett

Warren Buffett’s recent decisions to sell stocks (33B in last 3 quarters) and increase cash reserves ( to$147B), combined with Michael Burry’s options bet against the market, suggest concerns about a possible recession in the US economy. Factors such as persistent inflation, high gas prices, global instability, the AI boom, troubles in commercial real estate, […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Deficit Spending

Deficit Spending

The U.S. government’s deficit is expected to reach $2 trillion this fiscal year, which is double last year’s deficit. Increased spending and decreased revenue, driven by higher interest rates, contribute to this significant deficit. This is concerning given the strong growth and low unemployment in the economy. Different media outlets point to factors such as […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Buyer Beware (pt 2)

Buyer Beware (pt 2)

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Greg P
Cover Image for Buyer Beware!

Buyer Beware!

In August 2023, mortgage rates rose to the highest level in 23 years, with the national average 30-year fixed mortgage hitting 7.48%. With home prices and mortgage rates both rising, the U.S. is now witnessing the biggest numerical gap in the monthly cost between owning a home and renting in over 50 years. Today’s chart […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Short Selling, Hope, and Reddit

Short Selling, Hope, and Reddit

Marije Meerman’s final chapter in her series on trading discusses the challenges and risks of short selling in the financial market. They point out that while being proved right as a short seller is possible, it can also be a lonely and daunting task. Ultimately short selling is just a small part of the larger […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for The World’s Worst Person to Trade With…

The World’s Worst Person to Trade With…

Some industry executives are calling for a fresh crackdown on Former MF Global CEO Jon Corzine and a ban on his ability to trade futures. They cite his past actions and the fallout from the MF Global incident, where he oversaw the disappearance of $1 billion in customer funds. “The regulator announced a settlement with […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for El Niño Vs La Niña

El Niño Vs La Niña

Reminder! https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/el-nino-event-development-noaa-advisory-forecast-winter-weather-impact-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ Typically there is a phase change around every 1-3 years. El Niño anomaly is growing rapidly, with a strong seasonal impact already seen in the forecast as we head into Fall and Winter 2023/2024 Based on the latest data, NOAA has released an El Niño advisory showing a rapidly growing El Niño anomaly. […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Crazy Rich Asians

Crazy Rich Asians

Singapore’s success to factors such as a strong government, reclaiming land for affordable housing, a blend of central planning and free market mechanics, high savings rates, and its strategic geographic advantage as a gas station for cargo ships. The video emphasizes that Singapore’s success cannot be purely attributed to luck or low taxes, and that […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for The End of the Dollar….

The End of the Dollar….

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Greg P
Cover Image for “never let a crisis go to waste”

“never let a crisis go to waste”

This video highlights the emergence of catastrophe bonds, or cat bonds, as a lucrative investment opportunity in the world of Planet Finance. Cat bonds are designed to cover the damage caused by future disasters that traditional insurance companies cannot handle. The video discusses how complex computations and data analysis are used to calculate the probability […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Giving Themselves a Pat on the Back…

Giving Themselves a Pat on the Back…

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester acknowledges that there has been stronger growth than expected, along with lower inflation and higher long-term rates, which could put downward pressure on inflation. She believes that under-tightening would be a worse mistake than over-tightening and emphasizes the importance of monitoring the economy and achieving a soft landing. Mester expects […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for This is why the world has gone crazy….

This is why the world has gone crazy….

This video explains opinions of the effects of monetary policies in Japan, China, and Hong Kong. It explains the role of quantitative easing (QE) in Japan and its effectiveness, as well as the impact of the European sovereign crisis on the Chinese economy. The importance of capital influx and trade deficits in funding industrialization is […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for NVIDIA: NASDAQ SUPERSTAR

NVIDIA: NASDAQ SUPERSTAR

Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report could have a significant impact on the market sentiment, according to Joe Terranova and Liz Young. Terranova highlights how Nvidia’s strong earnings in the past led to a rally in the S&P, suggesting that positive results from Nvidia could help the market recover from its current weak period. Conversely, disappointment from […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for The Biggest IPO Ever…

The Biggest IPO Ever…

This video delves into the aftermath of Beijing’s cancellation of Ant Group’s IPO, leaving Planet Finance in shock. The sudden halt of the IPO derails what could have been the largest initial public offering ever. There is growing discomfort and worry in Shanghai’s business district as Jack Ma’s controversial speech warning about the power of […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Childcare Prices are OTC

Childcare Prices are OTC

TL;DR While overall inflation has fallen significantly since last year, families with young children still face sharp increases in one of their biggest expenses-child care. Many child-care providers closed permanently early in the pandemic, and child-care prices rose more slowly than the overall inflation rate from March 2021 to February 2023, while many Americans worked from home. Childcare inflation has picked up since then as workers returning to offices fueled more demand, pay for low-wage workers jumped amid labor shortages. Congrats to our own E and R on their new baby!

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Greg P

Food Imports

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fa-cool-guide-to-visualize-from-which-states-the-u-s-is-v0-4x9wrh04ibhb1.jpg%3Fs%3D2614cbaf190136686129174184c21690894e194e

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Greg P

Chicago Property…

https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/too-many-vacant-lots-not-enough-housing-the-u-s-real-estate-puzzle-2aa19733?mod=hp_lead_pos7\ In Chicago there is “not enough housing” but there are “too many vacant lots.”hmmmmmm WSJ Reasons: Cumbersome rules to resolve unpaid tax bills on abandoned lots keep away developers, and cheap tax assessments on vacant lots encourage owners to keep them off the market. These are the perfect conditions for a downward housing spiral, […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Streaming is Killing TV

Streaming is Killing TV

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Greg P
Cover Image for Getting ready for energy grid overload…

Getting ready for energy grid overload…

This video is a big ad for Avangrid, but it is useful in that it accurately describes the shortcomings of the USA energy sector and grid regardless of the proposed solutions. The CEO of Avangrid, Pedro Azagra, describes the state of the current grid, which consists of three distinct parts: the eastern part, the western […]

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Greg P

HUGE Bet by Burry…

Michael Burry, the investor famous for his success during the financial crisis, has revealed a new “Big Short” position. He has purchased put options on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, representing 2 million shares each. The notional value of these options is $1.5 billion, indicating a potential windfall if the market were to retest […]

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Greg P

Earnings This Week

https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/17494/next-week-earnings-calendar-stocks *HD, TGT, WMT, WYNN, DE are some of the big ones*

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Greg P

The NFL’s Magic Money Machine…

The Dallas Cowboys rank first in the NFL, and across all sports leagues around the globe, with a value of $9.2 billion, well ahead of the New York Giants ($7.04 billion) and Los Angeles Rams ($6.98 billion).  The guaranteed profits and $120 billion worth of domestic media deals locked in for the next nine years have pushed […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Kamakazi drones, dolphins, other Ukrainian Naval Assets

Kamakazi drones, dolphins, other Ukrainian Naval Assets

The implications of Ukraine’s alleged strike on the Kerch Strait Bridge using modified kamikaze drones, as well as Russia’s suspension of the grain deal and subsequent attacks on Ukrainian grain storage and export facilities are all explored in depth. Also, the rejection of the grain deal has significant economic, strategic, and diplomatic implications for world […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for OIL is the most important commodity on the planet.

OIL is the most important commodity on the planet.

This is a great explanation of futures markets and oil futures using the CME crude oil contract as an example.

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Greg P
Cover Image for Warren Buffett Doesn’t Care and Neither Should You…

Warren Buffett Doesn’t Care and Neither Should You…

As noted yesterday….the ratings agencies are full of it. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/03/warren-buffett-says-hes-not-worried-about-fitchs-us-downgrade.html

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Greg P
Cover Image for Public vs. Private

Public vs. Private

Ray Dalio’s thoughts on the ongoing transfer of wealth….the link below is worth looking at just for the charts The economy is not reacting to the Fed’s tightening in the usual way, as evidenced by the data in the charts. The shift in wealth from the public sector (central government and central bank) and government […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for I Think These People Are Nuts…

I Think These People Are Nuts…

Fitch downgraded USA debt from AAA. Singapore and Norway now have better credit ratings than the USA. (Fun fact: AIG had a AAA rating before failing in the most public and spectacular fashion possible, giving all their cash (and a lot of bailout cash) to Goldman Sachs Turns out picking up pennies in front of […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for The MESSI Effect

The MESSI Effect

Major League Soccer (MLS) and MLS franchises are approaching billion-dollar valuations, with most teams now valued at around $400 million. FC Dallas President Dan Hunt believes that there is limitless demand for these franchises and that one day they will be worth multi-billions. While they may not reach the valuations of the NFL, there is […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Brazilian Farmland Boom

Brazilian Farmland Boom

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Greg P
Cover Image for S&P Top 10

S&P Top 10

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Greg P
Cover Image for SBF News Shocks the Justice System

SBF News Shocks the Justice System

https://apnews.com/article/bankmanfried-ftx-crypto-charges-ellison-60aa798f4aacb0ddd6a422b72e5a7614 FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried will no longer face a campaign finance charge at an October criminal trial, federal prosecutors say, citing a decision by Bahamian authorities to reject a count in the indictment that was not listed on the warrant against him when he was extradited to the United States in December.

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Greg P
Cover Image for “Survive ’til 25?”  Barry Sternlicht

“Survive ’til 25?” Barry Sternlicht

Starwood founder and real estate investor Barry Sternlicht discusses various topics, including his thoughts on the current state of the real estate market and the potential impact of artificial intelligence. He criticizes the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates too quickly, resulting in vacant office buildings. Sternlicht predicts a recession but hopes it will be […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Should the fed declare victory?

Should the fed declare victory?

Jeff Gundlach notes Import and Export prices, are looking encouraging. However, he also mentions that these prices are currently in negative double digits compared to previous years, indicating disinflationary pressure. Gundlach believes that the massive stimulus and economic distortions from 2020 and 2021 have led to inflation, which is still bubbling through the system. He […]

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Greg P

COLA

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-big-will-social-securitys-2024-cola-be-96855747?mod=retirement_twitter&link=sfmw_tw The range of estimates is in line with the 3.3% COLA projected by the Social Security actuaries in the 2023 Trustees Report and well below last year’s COLA of 8.7% (see Figure 2).

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Greg P
Cover Image for Bianco Predicts…

Bianco Predicts…

The Magnificent Seven stocks (FANG stocks, plus Tesla, Microsoft, and Nvidia) have contributed significantly to the overall market gains. Bianco attributes their success to the hype around artificial intelligence and the rollout of new technologies. However, he also notes that the performance of the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 has been less impressive, […]

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Greg P
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Top 15 Economies

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Greg P
Cover Image for Russian Wheat Scare

Russian Wheat Scare

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Greg P
Cover Image for Soft Landing

Soft Landing

Mohamed El-Erian, former CEO and current academic and economic adviser, thinks that a soft landing narrative in the economy, combined with *money on the sidelines*, is driving the current rally. El-Erian acknowledges the bearish sentiment among investors but believes good earnings numbers could bring some back. *reminder…there is no such thing as money on the […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Canada’s 40B LNG Investment

Canada’s 40B LNG Investment

Canada, being one of the world’s largest producers of natural gas, does not have the infrastructure to export it overseas. LNG Canada aims to become a major source of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export. So, this project involves building a terminal and pipeline to transport the gas from the source to the terminal, where […]

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Greg P

Turkey up to its eyeballs

Over the past two years, there has been a significant shift in the power balance, causing Turkey to reassess its relationships. This has led to improvements in relations with countries like Israel and a reevaluation of its stance towards Russia. Negotiations on the transfer of military technology and equipment, such as F-16s and drones, have […]

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Greg P

ATVI news

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-and-activision-were-supposed-to-merge-today-will-they-hit-pause-153253816.html There are still a few complications in the US as well. One is that the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is still challenging the merger in a lawsuit filed in the agency’s in-house court even after its case was weakened when a federal appellate court denied its request to pause the tie-up. The FTC has alleged that combining the […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Inequality Vizualized

Inequality Vizualized

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Greg P
Cover Image for Big Bank President?

Big Bank President?

He suggests that the country’s lackluster economic growth can be attributed to shortcomings in areas such as immigration, taxation, mortgages, affordable housing, and healthcare. Dimon also discusses the need for better education and expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit as a form of industrial policy to improve social outcomes. While Dimon acknowledges his interest in […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Kyle Bass

Kyle Bass

Kyle Bass, founder of Hayman Capital and one of the few to benefit from the 2008 mortgage crisis, warns of the concerning military capabilities of China and argues that American investors played a role in building their war machine. He points out that China now has more naval ships than the U.S. Navy and believes […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Berkshire buys…

Berkshire buys…

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230710023048/en/Berkshire-Hathaway-Energy-Announces-Purchase-of-Additional-Stake-in-Cove-Point-LNG?s=03 Berkshire Hathaway first bought a stake in Dominion’s gas pipeline and storage assets for $4 billion in 2020 and just announced 50% stake in the Cove Point liquefied natural gas facility for $3.3 billion in cash. BRK.A now owns a 75% limited partnership stake in Cove Point LNG located in Lusby, Maryland. Subject to […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Bitcoin ETF “WHEN NOT IF”

Bitcoin ETF “WHEN NOT IF”

Michael Sonnenshein, CEO of Grayscale, discusses the possibility of BlackRock getting the first Bitcoin ETF and how it affects their plans. The CEO states that Grayscale has long been prepared for a marketplace with multiple Bitcoin ETFs, so they are focused on converting GBTC. He also mentions that they are awaiting an opinion from the […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Farm Income drops….

Farm Income drops….

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Cover Image for Car inflation….

Car inflation….

One factor is the high demand for affordable transportation, which led to older cars becoming valuable commodities instead of being scrapped. As a result, there are fewer average cars available for the middle class. The high-price, high-margin models received first priority and pick of the limited semiconductors supply sourced from China. Car manufacturers and dealers […]

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Greg P

Leaders of Industry

Wall Street Journal summarizes key strategies of various successful companies, including Chick-fil-A’s focus on small menu items and strict franchise model, Costco’s commitment to low prices and limited product selection, and IKEA’s emphasis on flatpacking and democratic design. Starbucks’ early investment in espresso and mobile app have transformed the company into a global coffee giant, […]

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Greg P

Germany kicking the can…

https://www.kob.com/news/business-money/german-government-puts-off-vote-on-a-contentious-heating-plan-until-september/ Germany’s governing coalition has delayed a vote on legislation aimed at encouraging the replacement of fossil fuel heating systems until September. The decision came after the country’s top court rejected plans to push the bill through parliament this week. The court’s ruling was an obstacle for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition, hampering its attempts to […]

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Greg P

More Rice Please…

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/rice-get-costlier-weather-indias-farm-perks-threaten-supply-2023-07-06/ Rice prices are at their highest in 11 years and are expected to rise further due to several factors. India, which accounts for over 40% of global rice exports, has increased payments to farmers, leading to higher prices for rice. The El Nino weather pattern, which typically brings lower rainfall to Asia where rice […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for The Most Famous Trade Ever

The Most Famous Trade Ever

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Greg P
Cover Image for Oaktree’s new CEO

Oaktree’s new CEO

Armen Panossian (Co-CEO of 160B fund Oaktree Capital, now a subsidiary of Brookfield) discusses his new role, transaction volume, and partnerships in the private lending universe, particularly in real estate and corporate lending.  He mentions liquidity in the market is significantly lower, with less trading volume and new issuance in high-yield bonds and senior loans. […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Blackstone forecasts….

Blackstone forecasts….

Blackstone CFO Michael Chae sees inflation trending down and economic resilience. However, he also highlights the challenges of the cost of capital and the availability of capital, which are affected by factors like short rates, quantitative tightening ($1T annually), and credit contraction. As a result, Blackstone expects the Fed to deliver a slowdown to the […]

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Greg P

Famine

Initially, it was believed that famine was becoming extinct due to technological advancements, economic growth, and global humanitarian efforts. However, the 2011 famine in Somalia, which resulted in the deaths of 260,000 people, proved this notion wrong. Since then, there have been more famines declared in Africa, as well as several near misses. The COVID-19 […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Griffin at Goldman

Griffin at Goldman

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Greg P
Cover Image for 69

69

University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment reading for June is reported at 64.4, making it the second-best reading of the year. Current conditions also improved to 69, the second-best reading outside of February. Inflation numbers remained steady, with a one-year inflation rate of 3.3 and a 5 to 10-year inflation rate of 3.0, both being […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Soil and food for thought…

Soil and food for thought…

64% of corn acres and 57% of bean acres are now under drought stress however DEC corn futures are trading close to 9% lower than JUL corn and NOV bean futures are trading 14% lower than JUL beans.

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Greg P
Cover Image for Chaos King

Chaos King

“It’s not just about making money during catastrophes…it’s about trying to protect ourselves from catastrophes” Nassim describes that most people prefer to sit on metaphorical dynamite for a steady stream of income. The primary goal at his firm Universa Investments is to benefit when the “steady” cashflow assets and trades cease to make money. Some […]

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Greg P

Market to the moon!?

Racing to buy calls usually means FOMO

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Greg P
Cover Image for Klarman’s Tabula Rasa

Klarman’s Tabula Rasa

Klarman/Baupost Holdings https://whalewisdom.com/filer/baupost-group-llc-ma

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Greg P
Cover Image for Biden Broadband Initiative

Biden Broadband Initiative

The White House has unveiled how the government will divvy up $42bn among the US’s 50 states to expand access to high-speed broadband by 2030, as it launched a new publicity campaign for President Joe Biden’s economic policies. The $42bn in federal funding under the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment Program is based on a […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Amazon Spends

Amazon Spends

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Amazon’s profitable cloud business will invest roughly $7.8 billion by the end of 2029 to expand its data center operations in central Ohio cloud computing operations, further advancing the state’s efforts to establish itself as the Midwest’s technology hub. https://apnews.com/article/amazon-aws-ohio-data-center-investment-e35c8b726269b6b78ce05854f9f31d27

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Cover Image for 2 Broke Everyone

2 Broke Everyone

*when you control the printing press (and there is sufficient demand)…you can do anything you want*

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Greg P

Commercial Real Estate

1.4 trillion of commercial debt is coming due in the US alone, and with the cost of borrowing being up and the value of buildings down, refinancing may not be possible for some. Many banks, lenders, and owners have to decide what to do as it is unclear how much further down it will go. […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Genius, Bond Villain, or both?

Genius, Bond Villain, or both?

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman believes that sustainable improvements in quality of life stem from scientific progress, but stresses the need to manage through the associated risks to achieve that. Implicitly responding to accusations of hypocrisy in support of regulation, Altman asserts that OpenAI supports regulation even in private meetings, and only protests burdensome regulation on small […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Econ 101?

Econ 101?

Senator Kennedy questions Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell about inflation and capital requirements for banks. **Powell explains that we had very little inflation for 25 years** and that inflation depends on whether tax increases or spending cuts are part of a congressional budget plan. If there were no spending cuts, he believes there would be […]

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Greg P
Cover Image for Rubenstein on Real Estate

Rubenstein on Real Estate

David Rubenstein, co-founder and co-chairman of Carlyle Group, believes that the biggest investment opportunity over the next 2 to 3 years lies in the discounted real estate debt market, specifically in large commercial office buildings in major cities. Rubenstein acknowledges the challenges facing some cities, such as public relations issues and declining real estate prices, […]

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BTC “Staying Power”

The inaugural Coinbase State of Crypto Summit was focused on regulation and the macro landscape, with institutional investors, corporations, policymakers, and academics in attendance. The sentiment in the industry has been high since BlackRock filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF, signaling that it sees a place for Bitcoin in an investment portfolio. Additionally, Fed chair […]

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Why is Europe Lagging Behind the US?

Advanced economies like the US have had a head start on developing advanced industries, making it difficult for others to catch up. Europe, despite being primarily comprised of already advanced economies, lacks the innovative global companies compared to the US and even the new players coming from Asia, with exceptions like Germany and France, leading […]

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6/21/23

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/powell-nearly-all-fed-members-expect-to-raise-rates-again-this-year-123006616.html Advanced economies like the US have had a head start on developing advanced industries, making it difficult for others to catch up. Europe, despite being primarily comprised of already advanced economies, lacks the innovative global companies compared to the US and even the new players coming from Asia, with exceptions like Germany and France, […]

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Balaji Panics….

Balaji Srinivasan discusses the recent financial crisis and compares it to the one that happened in 2008. He explains that over the course of 2021, many people were saying that inflation was going to happen, but the Federal Reserve continued to sell hundreds of billions of dollars in bonds during this period. However, in December […]

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BlackRock accepts BTC

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Bud Lite Loses its Crown

Washington Post “Expert” analysis…..

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Tom Lee on 2023

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JUNE FOMC

https://assets.realclear.com/files/2023/06/2201_fomc.pdf June FOMC Meeting: Saying They Will If They Have To, But Hoping They Won’t Have To? › The FOMC made no change to the Fed funds rate target range, leaving the mid-point of the target range at 5.125 percent › The updated dot plot implies a terminal Fed funds rate target range mid-point of […]

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RFK Jr. Favorabiliy

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Dalio’s World

Ray Dalio and Thomas Friedman discuss China’s Confucianism way of thinking and how it affects China’s foreign policy. China views itself as a family and its country as an extended family. Confucianism is a top-down, hierarchical philosophy based on strict parenting. They focus on mutual respect between those who are more powerful and those who […]

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6/14/23

FED DAY!!! Policy announcement at 1CST, press conference at 1:30 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-expected-to-skip-a-june-rate-hike-but-signal-more-in-the-future-141346398.html The Fed’s benchmark interest rate stands in a range of 5%-5.25%, the highest level since September 2007. As part of its most aggressive rate hiking campaign since the 1980s, the Fed has increased the target range for its benchmark interest rate by 5 percentage […]

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MSFT ATVI Blocked

https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-judge-temporarily-blocks-microsoft-acquisition-activision-2023-06-14/

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Endowment Funds

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Time For Bonds

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-michele-says-time-exit-143330550.html I don’t agree with this but…… it’s interesting to read what the other side thinks….. JPMorgan’s Michele Says It’s Time to Exit ‘Cash Trap’ and Move Into Bonds JPMorgan’s Michele Says It’s Time to Exit ‘Cash Trap’ and Move Into Bonds (Bloomberg) — It’s time to exit the “cash trap” of money market funds […]

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Fed Day

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-expected-to-skip-a-june-rate-hike-but-signal-more-in-the-future-141346398.html The Fed’s benchmark interest rate stands in a range of 5%-5.25%, the highest level since September 2007. As part of its most aggressive rate hiking campaign since the 1980s, the Fed has increased the target range for its benchmark interest rate by 5 percentage points since March 2022.

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Gundlach on Macro

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OIL and Inflation

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-oil-surges-higher-helped-by-us-cpi-opec-report-3104289 World consumption will exceed supplies by roughly 2.7 million barrels a day next month, a report from OPEC indicated on Tuesday, and if the de facto leader of the group decided to extend the reduction for the whole third quarter, it would be the biggest deficit since 2021. The International Energy Agency, which advises […]

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Inflation Nation?

https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/MYmLSGnK?s=03 Commodities specialists Scott Shelady and Tom Grisafi talk about inflation and its implications beginning at 3:15

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Fake News 2

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Fake News

this is fake news because the big mac price is really 5 something but the message is directionally accurate. Inflation hurts Mcdonald’s customers the most. Personally, my last McDonalds order was $15+.

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Trump in(dicted) Miami

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWqJSDBV1Yw Donald Trump is expected to plead not guilty to 37 felony counts linked to owning classified documents related to national security as well as charges of conspiracy to obstruct justice and lying about it ahead of his first appearance in a courtroom in Miami. Trump met his lawyers yesterday close to the court, supposedly […]

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Fed Leanings….

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-feds-rate-decision-will-likely-be-a-last-minute-call-105028772.html Powell has been careful not to tip his hand, along with New York Fed President John Williams, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and Fed Governor Chris Waller, who have also signaled to keep their options open. “Inflation is not as low as they […]

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Ukraine Strikes Back…

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When Models Fail…

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BTC vs GOV

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/crypto-giants-binance-coinbase-rough-week-rcna87939 Crypto has their answer — and it’s not one that they’re going to like. That has been a major question mark, one that has left the industry begging for clarity from the SEC and Congress about how the government views the “tokens” trade, which has produced billions in transaction fees for these major markets. […]

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Dalio Says STAGFLATION

Dalio Says STAGFLATION Ray Dalio discusses how the problem with the US’s current debt crisis is that the central banks and the commercial banks will have solvency concerns due to government debt holdings. He highlights the trade-off between raising the debt-to-income ratio and balancing interest rates for creditors rather than debtors. He adds that the […]

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Meme Stock Fiasco

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Druckenmiller on AI

Investor Stanley Druckenmiller shared his concerns about the US national debt and entitlement spending, warning of the strain on America’s GDP and future investment and innovation. He also discussed the potential risks in asset markets, tightening credit, and problems in banks due to the Fed’s encouragement to buy treasuries, and he believes a hard landing […]

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Change is the Only Constant

Warren Buffett discusses the importance of adapting to change in business. He notes that Berkshire Hathaway has diversified its portfolio in response to changes that hurt some of its founding businesses. Buffett advises expanding one’s knowledge but warns not to force it and recommends continuous learning and adaptation within one’s own circle of competence. Buffett […]

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